While the Unified Cycle Theory is new and untested, two ways of validating its accuracy exist.  The first way lies with its current warning of a looming economic depression.  The theory identifies an important reversal point during January 2007.  It predicts a tremendous bear market in stocks - followed by economic depression lasting until at least 2017.

The second method of validation rests with global temperature trends.  In sharp contrast to the prevailing view, the EUWS cycles project a significant decline in global temperatures during the next 85 years.  The global temperature model Chart MOD25 below consists of nine EUWS cycles between the years 1664 and 2122.

During this 500 year period, significant temperature events included the Maunder Minimum (with a theoretical low at 1692); the Dalton Minimum (with a theoretical low at 1806); the beginning of Modern Global Warming (with a theoretical low at 1921); and the projected end of Modern Global Warming (with a theoretical high at 2007).  Moving through the 21st Century, the model projects an initial low in temperatures at 2035.  After a partial recovery, the model projects a secondary low point for the year 2092.

In constructing short-term global temperature charts, monthly data comes from two sources -- The Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia [CRU, 2008] and The National Space Science & Technology Center at the University of Alabama-Huntsville.[NSSTC, 2008]  For the 30 years in which their data overlaps, both sets of data match fairly closely.  However, NSSTC data only goes back to 1978, while CRU data starts in the year 1850.  Because of its longevity, the CRU data serves as the primary source for charting purposes.  The NSSTC data does provide a useful role as a cross-check to validate recent CRU numbers.

Furthermore, the Climatic Research Unit publishes its monthly temperature average within about 10 to 15 days of the end of each month.  Hence, they provide very timely data.  For these reasons, the CRU series offers an excellent way to track global temperatures and validate the Unified Cycle Theory.

In fact, Chart GT1 shows that a cooling trend may have already begun.  From month to month, temperature changes often swing substantially; however, when smoothed with a moving average, global temperatures move at a much slower pace.  To eliminate the monthly swings and thus smooth the data, a 6.36-year moving average is employed.  Using a 6.36-year average eliminates potential distortions related to the 6.36-year EUWS cycle.  The vertical grid-lines in chart GT1 represent theoretical peaks of the 19.08-year cycle.

All EUWS cycles closely track global climate since Earth formed 4.54 billion years ago.[Puetz, 2009]  Because of this long-term consistency, EUWS oscillations carry great weight in determining Earth's climate.  In chart GT1 above, notice the 171.72-year theoretical trough marked with green double-arrows at 1921.  Ever since then, the 171.72-year cycle has moved higher - with global temperatures following.  But during January 2007, the 171.72-year cycle turned lower (red double-arrows) - with global temperatures immediately showing signs of reversal.  Also in the chart, single-arrows designate theoretical turning points for the 57.24-year EUWS cycle.  During the past 150 years, the 57.24-year cycle caused minor disruptions to the 171.72-year cycle's trend.

The preceding chart will be updated and published every month in this newsletter - as part of our Global Cooling Watch.  Over the next 26 years, with a projected minimum at 2035, global climate may be the easiest and most practical way of validating The Unified Cycle Theory.

NSSTC, [2008]. The National Space Science & Technology Center.  University of Alabama at Huntsville.  http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

Puetz, S.J., [2009].  The Unified Cycle Theory: How Cycles Dominate the Structure of the Universe and Influence Life on Earth. Outskirts Press, Denver, Colorado; ISBN: 978-1-4327-1216-7.